RICH MACLEOD: the blog

A Mid-Season Look at My Pre-Season NFL Picks

We’re officially at the mid-point of the 2011-2012 NFL season and now is as good a time as any to take a look back at my pre-season picks and see how I’m fairing so far.

First, the NFC:

1. NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)

Things didn’t look good for Philly for awhile after losing four consecutive games and falling to 1-4 but with two straight fairly dominant performances, the so-called “Dream Team” is starting to look more like what we all thought they would. They’re still two games behind the New York Giants but for now, I’m sticking with this pick.

2. NFC North: Green Bay Packers (7-0)

I think we all knew going into the season that the Green Bay Packers were the best team in football but I’m not sure if anyone knew they would be this good.  Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind right now and with a receiving core of Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley and the veteran Donald Driver, this team looks unstoppable. It may seem far-fetched but could this team go undefeated? The better question is: who can beat them?

3. NFC South: New Orleans Saints (5-3)

It’s hard to pick against a team that has Drew Brees standing behind center and at times they’ve looked a lot like the dominant team they had in 2009 but their defense has been less than stellar and they’re coming off of a shocking loss to the previously winless St. Louis Rams without Sam Bradford.  In a division where the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Bucaneers are above .500 and the Carolina Panthers are much more competitive, this Saints team needs to get a lot more consistent before I consider them anything more than a division winner.

4. NFC West: Arizona Cardinals (1-5)

Swing and a miss! Okay, I absolutely whiffed on this one. With the acquisitions of Todd Heap and “franchise” quarterback Kevin Kolb I expected this Cardinals team, which isn’t that far removed from postseason success, to be able to take control of a weak NFC West. Man, was I dead wrong. Kolb hasn’t shown anything, Heap’s been injured most of the season and this secondary, besides rookie stud Patrick Peterson, can’t cover anyone. In a division where the Cardinals and Rams both have just 1 win and the Seattle Seahawks have only 2, the 6-1 San Francisco 49ers could realistically clinch the NFC West before Thanksgiving. Yikes.

5. Wild Card: Atlanta Falcons (4-3)

Matt Ryan has regressed a bit this season throwing 9 touchdowns compared to 8 interceptions but with a new found running game with Michael Turner and an improving defense, the Falcons look like they’re starting to get back to the team that went 13-3 last season and was a number 1 seed in the playoffs.  There’s still a long way to go in a difficult conference where the Giants, Eagles, Bears and Bucaneers will be fighting for playoff spots but I think this team is on the right track.

6. Wild Card: Detroit Lions (6-2)

After losing 2 straight games following a 5-0 start, the Lions got back to their winning ways Sunday by demolishing the Denver Tim Tebows Broncos.  Matthew Stafford has been healthy (for the most part) and Calvin Johnson is emerging as by far the best receiver in the entire league. If they can get Jahvid Best back from his concussion to establish a run game and continue to play great defense with a D-line that includes Nick Fairley, Kyle Vanden Bosch and Ndamukong Suh I think Detroit will be just fine.

And now for the AFC…

1. AFC East: New England Patriots (5-2)

Tom Brady and Wes Welker started off with numbers that would blow you right out of your seat but have since slowed down their historic paces and more and more holes have been showing up in recent weeks. Chad Ochocinco, who they traded for and signed to a 3-year extension in the offseason, has been an absolute no-show on the offense, the “Law Firm” should be arrested for impersonating a running back and the defense, especially the secondary, has been getting lit up since Week 1 giving up the most yards of any team in the entire NFL. They’re currently tied for first with the Buffalo Bills and those New York Jets aren’t going away at 4-3. If they take care of their own business they should be fine but there are a lot more issues with this team than maybe anybody thought going into the season.

2. AFC North: Baltimore Ravens (5-2)

After starting the season with a thrashing of the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers and some big wins over the St. Louis Rams and New York Jets, the Ravens looked to become the best team in the AFC until last week’s surprising loss to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football. Down 24-3 to the 1 win Arizona Cardinals at home, Baltimore could’ve just packed it in and gone home early but led by a quarterback who’s been scrutinized all week, the Ravens staged their biggest comeback in franchise history and won 30-27 to improve to 5-2. Next week’s rematch against the Pittsburgh Steelers will be very telling but for now, I’m starting to think the Ravens may enter the playoffs as a Wild Card team instead.

3. AFC South: Houston Texans (5-3)

This is a pick that I made before the news came out about Peyton Manning missing most of, if not the entire season. It was risky then, a lot less risky now. They’ve shown to be inconsistent, as they’ve always been, but they had a big win earlier in the season against the Pittsburgh Steelers and in a division where only the somewhat surprising Tennessee Titans (led by Matt Hasselback) are above .500, unless they figure out a new way to screw this up, expect the Texans to make the playoffs for the first time in team history.

4. AFC West: San Diego Chargers (4-2)

Historically the Chargers have always started slow and turned it on late in seasons but so far, that hasn’t been the case. Although they started the season 4-1 many people, including myself, were skeptical of the team because the 4 wins were against all struggling teams (the Minnesota Vikings, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and Denver Broncos) and the one good team they faced, the New England Patriots, beat them up and exposed them. They had a 21-10 lead against the Jets in New York last Sunday but thanks to Plaxico Burress (and Philip Rivers’ 2 interceptions) the Jets came back and beat the Chargers 27-21. Tonight’s game against an improved Chiefs team will say a lot and while they have some question marks, I don’t see anyone else in that division taking charge.

5. New York Jets (4-3)

Rex Ryan’s club is on quite the roller coaster ride this season. They started 2-0, lost 3 straight and now have won 2 straight to climb back to 4-3. After their bye they face a much improved Bills team in Buffalo which is a huge game for both and the Jets will then play the division leading Patriots for the last time in the regular season the week after.  The running game and defense has improved more and more in the past weeks and with Mark Sanchez making less mistakes and finding a new redzone target in Plaxico Burress, the Jets seem to be on the right track if they want to make the playoffs for the third straight season.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)

The season started off shaky with a demoralizing loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1 and even with 5 wins, many people weren’t sure what to think about this team because they had beat up on a good amount of non-contenders. But yesterdays win over the favored New England Patriots opened a lot of eyes around the league and not only does this team look like they’re the best in the division… they may be the best in the AFC.